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Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.