Dutch Polls: Key Players and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Holland are preparing to potentially replace the most rightwing administration in recent memory with a more centrist and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the previous administration in the summer, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an already unstable and highly ineffectual governing alliance.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on June 3 after his partners refused to adopt a far-reaching comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to patrol borders, rejecting all refugee applicants, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
While support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, main Dutch political parties have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will emerge only after alliance talks that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to form a majority. No individual group ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions for more than a century.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – earlier if administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of contenders in a country-wide district: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Dutch politics have been marked in modern times by a sharp decline in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be returned, the military to fight "urban violence", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to just five seats in the last election.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three other parties look likely to be important players in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a platform focused on housing (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decrease. It is proposing corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful previous government, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is lacking 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, typically the head of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look possible, typically including a mix of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and one or more minor groups potentially including the conservative party.
